Snorlax Surges 98.6% as Pokemon Cards Show Bullish Momentum with 65% Gains
Crown Zenith drives market leadership while ME Mega Evolution Promo faces 5.8% decline
Tracked
28,954
Up
866
Down
462
Top move
+98.6%
Today in one read
The Pokemon card market displays strong bullish sentiment with 866 cards (65%) posting gains against 462 decliners across 28,954 tracked cards. Trading volume reached 57,517 sales over the past 7 days, representing an increase from the 30-day average of 226...
Signal 1 / Signal read
Market Overview
The Pokemon card market displays strong bullish sentiment with 866 cards (65%) posting gains against 462 decliners across 28,954 tracked cards. Trading volume reached 57,517 sales over the past 7 days, representing an increase from the 30-day average of 226,326 total sales. The market average gained 0.1% over the week and 0.3% over 30 days, with only 3% of cards showing bullish momentum on the 7-day timeframe and 4% on the 30-day period. The average composite score across all tracked cards stands at just 1 out of 100, indicating significant room for value discovery. Three cards currently exhibit high momentum ratings of 70 or above, suggesting concentrated strength in specific sectors while the broader market remains relatively stable.
Signal 2 / Momentum leader
Top Movers
Snorlax from Crown Zenith leads all gainers with a remarkable 98.6% surge to $7.44, backed by 55 sales over 30 days and a momentum score of 50. Alcremie VMAX from Prize Pack Series Cards jumped 68.9% to $84.45 with strong momentum of 70, though limited to just 10 sales. Chimecho from SV06 Twilight Masquerade gained 57.5% to $3.97 with its PSA 10 version commanding $47.30, while Lugia VSTAR from SWSH12 Silver Tempest climbed 42.2% to $6.44. The Crown Zenith set particularly dominated with Miltank from the Galarian Gallery subset rising 39.4% to $13.51, supported by robust volume of 109 sales and a PSA 10 premium of $140.00.
Signal 3 / Volume watch
Volume Watch
Unusual volume spikes signal shifting collector interest across multiple sets. Pikachu ex from SV08 Surging Sparks generated 4.3x normal volume with 37 sales versus a 9-sale average, though prices remained flat. Eevee ex from SV Prismatic Evolutions also hit 4.3x volume with 23 sales and a 14.5% price gain. ME03 Perfect Order cards dominated unusual activity with Meowth ex reaching 3.9x volume at 349 sales, Dedenne at 122 sales, and Mega Skarmory ex at 53 sales, though most Perfect Order cards faced price pressure despite the volume surge. This pattern suggests potential capitulation selling in the Perfect Order set while newer releases like Surging Sparks attract speculative interest.
Signal 4 / Sector map
Sector Analysis
7-Day Performance vs Market Average
Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery emerged as the week's standout performer, gaining 4.5% versus the market's 0.1% average, representing a 4.4 percentage point outperformance. The set's 70 tracked cards generated 5,856 sales with an average composite score of 24, led by Miltank's 39.4% surge and supported by a strong 30-day gain of 12.5%. This performance reflects sustained collector interest in the 2023 release's special Galarian Gallery subset cards. SWSH11 Lost Origin Trainer Gallery and SWSH09 Brilliant Stars Trainer Gallery both matched at 1.6% gains, outpacing the market by 1.5 percentage points each, with Lost Origin showing particular strength in its 30-day performance at 5.5% gains.
Conversely, ME Mega Evolution Promo severely underperformed with a 5.8% decline, missing the market by 5.9 percentage points despite generating substantial volume of 5,723 sales across 65 cards. The set's average composite score of just 19 reflects widespread weakness, with Serperior leading declines at -50.4% to $11.41. ME03 Perfect Order also disappointed with a -2.1% performance, underperforming the market by 2.2 percentage points and showing a concerning -2% decline over 30 days. The Perfect Order set's average composite score of just 4 across 167 cards signals deep value concerns, though Clefairy's 32.5% gain to $37.54 provided a notable bright spot with 239 sales demonstrating strong collector demand for specific cards within struggling sets.
Signal 5 / Cooling tape
Notable Declines
ME03 Perfect Order cards dominate the decline list with Wondrous Patch dropping 58.8% to $4.92 and Mega Zygarde ex falling 43.3% to $11.65 on 62 sales. Mega Gardevoir ex from ME Mega Evolution Promo declined 41.9% to $10.07 despite heavy volume of 202 sales, while Serperior from the same set crashed 50.4% to $11.41. These declines coincide with fair value signals showing significant upside potential, particularly Nemona at $5.60 with a fair value target of $45.77 representing 717.3% upside at 84% confidence. Trevenant VMAX Secret shows 680.5% upside potential from its current $6.93 price to a $54.09 fair value, suggesting these declines may present compelling contrarian opportunities for value investors.
![Serperior - 064 [Staff] card image](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/685498_in_600x600.jpg)
Signal 6 / Set spotlight
Set Spotlight: Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery
Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery continues its impressive run with a 4.5% weekly gain across 70 tracked cards, significantly outpacing the market's 0.1% average. The 2023 set maintains an average composite score of 24 with Turtwig leading the subset, while Miltank's 39.4% surge to $13.51 on 109 sales volume highlights sustained collector demand. Despite no cards currently showing high momentum ratings above 70, the set's consistent performance over both 7-day and 30-day periods (+12.5%) suggests stable value appreciation rather than speculative volatility. The Galarian Gallery subset's focus on alternate art Pokemon provides collectors with distinctive artwork that continues to command premiums, making this one of the more reliable performing modern sets in the current market environment.
Signal 7 / Grading watch
Grading Watch
| Card | Premium | RAW Price | PSA 10 Price | PSA 10 Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darkrai | 127.5x | 20.00 | 2,550 | 3.00 |
| Lucario ex | 121.4x | 5.50 | 667.50 | 4.00 |
| Gengar | 116.1x | 5.47 | 635.00 | 4.00 |
| Dark Raichu | 73.7x | 50.00 | 3,686 | 3.00 |
| Magneton | 62.0x | 10.00 | 620.00 | 3.00 |
| Charizard EX | 61.6x | 54.00 | 3,325 | 8.00 |
PSA 10 grading premiums reveal extraordinary value multipliers, with Darkrai leading at a staggering 127.5x premium from $20.00 raw to $2,550.00 graded across 3 PSA 10 sales. Lucario ex follows at 121.4x premium ($5.50 to $667.50) and Gengar at 116.1x premium ($5.47 to $635.00), both supported by 4 PSA 10 sales each. Dark Raichu commands a 73.7x multiplier jumping from $50.00 raw to $3,686.00 in PSA 10 condition. These extreme premiums reflect both the scarcity of perfect grades and collector willingness to pay significant multiples for pristine condition cards. Cards like Charizard EX with 61.6x premiums ($54.00 to $3,325.00) and 8 PSA 10 sales provide better liquidity for grading arbitrage strategies, while Pikachu EX's 59.5x premium ($150.00 to $8,924.00) demonstrates the enduring value of iconic Pokemon in perfect condition.
Signal 8 / Fair value
Fair Value Buys
| Card | Signal | Upside % | Confidence | Fair Value | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nemona | STRONG_BUY | 717.30 | 84% | 45.77 | 5.60 |
| Trevenant VMAX (Secret) | STRONG_BUY | 680.50 | 54% | 54.09 | 6.93 |
| Shining Volcanion | STRONG_BUY | 679.10 | 60% | 51.42 | 6.60 |
| Darkrai EX | STRONG_BUY | 661.70 | 50% | 80.05 | 10.51 |
| Lightning Energy (Secret) | STRONG_BUY | 652.20 | 51% | 55.29 | 7.35 |
| Froslass (Secret) | STRONG_BUY | 633.40 | 50% | 53.54 | 7.30 |
Fair value analysis identifies compelling undervalued opportunities with Nemona topping the list at $5.60 current price versus $45.77 fair value, representing 717.3% upside with 84% confidence. Trevenant VMAX Secret follows at 680.5% upside potential from $6.93 to $54.09, while Shining Volcanion offers 679.1% upside from $6.60 to $51.42. Lightning Energy Secret and Silvally GX present more moderate but still significant opportunities at 652.2% and 609.8% upside respectively. These valuations suggest algorithmic pricing models detect significant disconnects between current market prices and fundamental card values based on historical sales, rarity, and collector demand patterns. The high confidence levels on several recommendations, particularly Nemona at 84%, indicate robust statistical support for these value calls.
Signal 9 / Set spotlight
Set Value Tracker
| Set | Cards | 7d Change | Avg Price | Card Sales | Total Value | Sealed Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME03 Perfect Order (2026) | 167.00 | -14.00 | 5.78 | 2,080 | 965.39 | 905.00 |
| ME Mega Evolution Promo (2025) | 65.00 | -10.10 | 34.11 | 5,723 | 2,217.2 | 0 |
| Crown Zenith (2023) | 242.00 | 6.00 | 1.15 | 1,081 | 278.71 | 176.00 |
| SV Prismatic Evolutions (2025) | 393.00 | 5.50 | 12.31 | 11,704 | 4,836.95 | 1,022 |
| McDonalds Promos 2022 (2022) | 15.00 | 5.00 | 0.75 | 0 | 11.24 | 1.00 |
| SV06 Twilight Masquerade (2024) | 341.00 | 4.60 | 3.43 | 3,850 | 1,169.79 | 246.00 |
ME03 Perfect Order suffered the largest total value decline, dropping 14% to $965.39 across 167 cards with an average value of $5.78 per card. Despite 2,080 card sales, the set faces pressure from sealed product volume of 905 sales, suggesting oversupply concerns. ME Mega Evolution Promo declined 10.1% to $2,217.20 total value with a higher $34.11 average per card across 65 cards, though zero sealed sales indicate purely singles-driven trading.
Contrasting this weakness, SV Prismatic Evolutions gained 5.5% to reach $4,836.95 total value with $12.31 average per card and robust activity of 11,704 card sales plus 1,022 sealed sales. Crown Zenith rose 6% to $278.71 despite a low $1.15 per card average, supported by balanced activity of 1,081 card sales and 176 sealed sales. The correlation between sealed product demand and set value appreciation appears strong, with sets lacking sealed interest like ME Mega Evolution Promo facing sustained pressure while those maintaining sealed demand like Prismatic Evolutions continue appreciating.
Signal 10 / Pack tape
Pack Value Breakdown
Pack pricing data was not provided in today's market intelligence feed, preventing analysis of sealed product value per pack across different booster box and ETB offerings. This metric typically reveals the most cost-effective entry points for collectors seeking to maximize pack openings per dollar invested. Without current pack pricing comparisons, investors should focus on the sealed sales volume data showing SV Prismatic Evolutions with 1,022 sealed sales and Crown Zenith with 176 sealed sales as indicators of sustained sealed product demand, while sets like ME Mega Evolution Promo showing zero sealed sales may lack competitive pack pricing or collector interest in sealed format.
Signal 11 / Forward read
Looking Ahead
The market's 65% bullish sentiment combined with concentrated gains in Crown Zenith cards suggests selective strength rather than broad-based speculation. Monitor Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery for continued outperformance, particularly cards with PSA 10 premiums exceeding 50x raw values. The ME03 Perfect Order decline presents contrarian opportunities, especially given fair value signals showing 600%+ upside on multiple cards with high confidence levels.
Arbitrage opportunities remain robust with $94,052.59 in total profit potential and eBay-to-TCGPlayer trades dominating at 3,167 opportunities. Focus on high-volume Charizard variants and iconic Pokemon showing consistent 40%+ spreads. The correlation between sealed product demand and set value appreciation suggests prioritizing sets with active sealed markets like SV Prismatic Evolutions over singles-only markets. Volume spikes in newer releases like Surging Sparks and Prismatic Evolutions warrant close monitoring as potential momentum plays, while the 127.5x PSA 10 premium on Darkrai highlights exceptional grading arbitrage potential for condition-sensitive collectors.